Food prices matter most: Sensitive household inflation expectations revise & resubmit at Management Science
With Nikoleta Anesti and Vania Esady
Presented at:  American Economics Association (Philadelphia, 2026), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and ECB conference on Inflation Drivers and Dynamics (Cleveland, 2024), accepted at Winter Society for Economic Dynamics (Buenos Aires, 2024), European Economics Association (Rotterdam, 2024), International Association for Applied Econometrics (2025), Sveriges Riksbank WIRE (2025), Bank of England's Non-linearities in Macroeconomics (2024),  Czech National Bank Workshop on Households' Inflation Expectations (2024), CEBRA (2023)
Policy Impact:
- Policy Institution Reports: [BoE MPRs:  April 2026; November 2025; August 2025; May 2025]; [OECD Economic Outlook, December 2024]; [UN World Economic Situation and Prospects, September 2025]; [NIESR Economic Outlook, Winter 2026]
- Policymaker speeches: [Huw Pill, BoE Chief Economist: September 2026; April 2025]; [Clare Lombardelli, BoE Deputy Governor: October 2026]; [Dave Ramsden, BoE Deputy Governor:  June 2025]; [Sarah Breeden, BoE Deputy Governor: September 2025]; [Alan Taylor,  BoE External MPC Member: September 2026]; [Catherine Mann, BoE External MPC Member: October 2025; August 2025; March 2025; February 2025]; [Megan Greene, BoE External MPC Member: June 2026; September 2025; February 2025; September 2024]; [James Talbot, BoE Executive Director: October 2026; May 2025]

Getting through: Communicating complex information
With Michael McMahon
Presented at:  American Economics Association (San Francisco, 2025), European Central Bank (2025), Isaac Newton Institute workshop on Communicating Mathematical and Data Sciences (University of Cambridge, 2024 - with YouTube link), Bank of Canada Annual Conference (2024), Bank of Finland (2024), Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2024), Toulouse School of Economics (2024), Royal Economics Society (Belfast, 2024), Scottish Economics Society (Glasgow, 2024), European Economics Association (Barcelona, 2023), Money Macro and Finance (Portsmouth, 2023), Money-Macro-Finance (Warsaw, 2023), Economics with Non-Traditional Data & Analytical Tools (King's College London, 2023)
Twitter: [Summary Thread]
Press Coverage: [CentralBanking.com]

Codes: [github.com/MatthewNaylorEcon]

Policy impact: [speech by Clare Lombardelli, BoE Deputy Governor: November 2024]

Anchors aweigh? The effect of communicating forecast uncertainty NEW!
With Michael McMahon, Ryan Rholes, and Peter Rickards
Presented at:  Banque de France (2025), Bank of England (2025), Chief Economists workshop (London, 2025), Cleveland Fed-ECB conference on Inflation Drivers and Dynamics (Cleveland, 2026, recorded presentation), Swiss National Bank (2025), CEPR seminar on Central Bank Communications (2025, with YouTube link),  European Economics Association (Dublin, 2026), Royal Economics Society (Newcastle, 2026), Stanford SITE conference on the Macroeconomics of Uncertainty & Volatility (2026), UC Davis (2026)
Press Coverage: [Financial Times]

Creditable capital: macroprudential regulation and bank lending in stress
With Aakriti Mathur and Aniruddha Rajan
Presented at: American Economics Association (New Orleans, 2023), European Economics Association (Milan, 2022), Fourth Conference on Financial Stability - Banco de Espana & CEMFI (Madrid, 2023 - with YouTube link), 7th Annual Columbia SIPA / BPI Bank Regulation (New York, 2023), Fifth Biennial Conference on Financial Stability - Banco de Mexico (Mexico City, 2023) BCBS-CGFS (BIS, 2022), International Monetary Fund (2022)
Press Coverage: [CentralBanking.com]
Policy impact: [speech by Sam Woods, BoE Deputy Governor: May 2022]; [speech by Victoria Saporta, BoE Executive Director: July 2021]; 

Banks' window-dressing of the G-SIB framework: causal evidence from a quantitative impact study
With Renzo Corrias and Peter Welz  
Twitter: [Summary Thread]
Press Coverage: [Reuters | Business Times | CentralBanking.com]
Policy Impact: [BCBS consults on measures to address window-dressing in G-SIB framework]; [BCBS finalises measures to to address window-dressing in the G-SIB framework]

Inflation dynamics over the net-zero transition: Carbon price shocks in a rationally inattentive world (link, last updated December 2023)

From forward guidance to data dependence: temporality and complexity in ECB communication after the pandemic
Central Bank of Ireland Economic Letter,  Vol. 2025, No. 2, April 2025
With David Byrne, Robert Goodhead, Michael McMahon, Conor Parle

Reviewing Monetary Policy Forecasts and Frameworks
Proceedings of the Czech National Bank Workshop on Monetary Policy: Inflation Targeting Frameworks Under Review, April 2025
With Huw Pill

Direct contributions to policy changes

Basel Committee consults on measures to address window-dressing in the G-SIB framework - Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, March 2024

Basel Committee finalises measures to address window-dressing in the G-SIB framework - Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, October 2026

Citations in policymaker speeches 

The outlook for inflation - Clare Lombardelli, October 2026 (Deputy Governor, Monetary Policy, Bank of England)

Physical shocks and economic resilience - a central bank perspective - James Talbot, October 2026 (Executive Director, International, Bank of England)

Searching for signposts - Alan Taylor, September 2026 (External MPC member, Bank of England)

Homophones - Huw Pill, September 2026 (Chief Economist, Bank of England)

Here we go again? Assessing the inflation risks of the recent energy shock - Megan Greene, June 2026 (External MPC member, Bank of England)

Explaining the consumption gap - Catherine Mann, October 2025 (External MPC member, Bank of England)

Bumps in the road? - Sarah Breeden, September 2025 (Deputy Governor, Financial Stability, Bank of England)

The supply side demands more attention - Megan Greene, September 2025 (External MPC member, Bank of England)

Five C's for Central Bank Research - Catherine Mann, August 2025 (External MPC member, Bank of England) 

Navigating an uncertain outlook: the signals from the labour market - Dave Ramsden, June 2025 (Deputy Governor, Markets & Banking, Bank of England)

The heat is on: why monetary policymakers are increasingly focusing on the impact of climate risks - James Talbot, May 2025 (Executive Director, International, Bank of England)

Reviewing Monetary Policy Forecasts and Frameworks - Huw Pill, April (2025 (Chief Economist, Bank of England)

Holding the anchor in turbulent waters - Catherine Mann, March 2025 (External MPC member, Bank of England)

Not such an island after all - Megan Greene, February 2025 (External MPC member, Bank of England)

The February 2025 Monetary Policy Report - and my vote - Catherine Mann, February 2025 (External MPC member, Bank of England)

Managing the present, shaping the future - Clare Lombardelli, November 2024 (Deputy Governor, Monetary Policy, Bank of England)

Who's buying? The outlook for consumption in a rate cutting cycle - Megan Greene, September 2024 (External MPC member, Bank of England)

Monetary policy as engineering?  - Sarah Breeden, December 2023 (Deputy Governor, Financial Stability, Bank of England)

Climate policy and monetary policy: interactions and implications - Catherine Mann, November 2023 (External MPC member, Bank of England) 

Bufferati - Sam Woods, May 2022 (Deputy Governor, Prudential Regulation Authority, Bank of England)

Emerging prudential lessons from the Covid stress - Vicky Saporta, July 2021 (Executive Director,  Prudential Policy, Bank of England)

Citations in policy institution reports

Bank of England Monetary Policy Report, April 2026

NIESR Winter 2026 Outlook

Bank of England Monetary Policy Report, November 2025

United Nations World Economic Situation and Prospects: September 2025 Briefing, No. 194

Bank of England Monetary Policy Report, August 2025

Bank of England Monetary Policy Report, May 2025

OECD Economic Outlook Volume 2024, Issue 2

"How central banks should navigate an uncertain 2026" in Financial Times, Dec 2025

"Global banking watchdog cracks down on big lenders gaming capital requirements" in Reuters, Mar 2024

"Capital buffers not all working as intended - BoE paper" in Central Banking, Jan 2023

"'Conceptual complexity' has risen in BoE publications, research finds" in Central Banking, Nov 2023

The language of rules - textual complexity in banking reforms
[Bank of England Staff Working Paper No. 834 | November 2021]