Research
Working Papers
Food prices matter most: Sensitive household inflation expectations
With Nikoleta Anesti and Vania Esady
[LSE Centre for Macro Paper No CFM-DP2024-34 | August 2024]
Presented at: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and ECB conference on Inflation Drivers and Dynamics (Cleveland, 2024), accepted at Winter Society for Economics Dynamics (Buenos Aires, 2024), European Economics Association (Rotterdam, 2024)
Getting through: Communicating complex information
With Michael McMahon
[Bank of England Staff Working Paper No. 1,047 | October 2023] and [CEPR Discussion Paper 18,357 | October 2023]
Presented at: American Economics Association (San Francisco, 2025), European Central Bank (2025), Isaac Newton Institute workshop on Communicating Mathematical and Data Sciences (University of Cambridge, 2024 - with YouTube link), Bank of Canada Annual Conference (2024), Bank of Finland (2024), Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2024), Toulouse School of Economics (2024), Royal Economics Society (Belfast, 2024), Scottish Economics Society (Glasgow, 2024), European Economics Association (Barcelona, 2023), Money Macro and Finance (Portsmouth, 2023), Money-Macro-Finance (Warsaw, 2023), Economics with Non-Traditional Data & Analytical Tools (King's College London, 2023)
Twitter: [Summary Thread]
Press Coverage: [CentralBanking.com]
Codes: [github.com/MatthewNaylorEcon]
Creditable capital: macroprudential regulation and bank lending in stress
With Aakriti Mathur and Aniruddha Rajan
[Bank of England Staff Working Paper No. 1,011 | January 2023]
Presented at: American Economics Association (New Orleans, 2023), European Economics Association (Milan, 2022), Fourth Conference on Financial Stability - Banco de Espana & CEMFI (Madrid, 2023 - with YouTube link), 7th Annual Columbia SIPA / BPI Bank Regulation (New York, 2023), Fifth Biennial Conference on Financial Stability - Banco de Mexico (Mexico City, 2023) BCBS-CGFS (BIS, 2022)
Press Coverage: [CentralBanking.com]
Banks' window-dressing of the G-SIB framework: causal evidence from a quantitative impact study
With Renzo Corrias and Peter Welz
[BCBS Working Paper No. 42 | March 2024]
Twitter: [Summary Thread]
Press Coverage: [Reuters | Business Times | CentralBanking.com]
Works in Progress
Inflation dynamics over the net-zero transition: Carbon price shocks in a rationally inattentive world (link, last updated December 2023)
Policy Impact
Policy changes
Basel Committee consults on measures to address window-dressing in the G-SIB framework - Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, March 2024
Citations in policymaker speeches
Who's buying? The outlook for consumption in a rate cutting cycle - Megan Greene, September 2024 (External MPC member, Bank of England)
Managing the present, shaping the future - Clare Lombardelli, November 2024 (Deputy Governor, Monetary Policy, Bank of England)
Monetary policy as engineering? - Sarah Breeden, December 2023 (Deputy Governor, Financial Stability, Bank of England)
Climate policy and monetary policy: interactions and implications - Catherine Mann, November 2023 (External MPC member, Bank of England)
Bufferati - Sam Woods, May 2022 (Deputy Governor, Prudential Regulation Authority, Bank of England)
Emerging prudential lessons from the Covid stress - Vicky Saporta, July 2021 (Executive Director, Prudential Policy, Bank of England)
Citations in policy institution reports
Media Coverage
"Global banking watchdog cracks down on big lenders gaming capital requirements" in Reuters, Mar 2024
"Capital buffers not all working as intended - BoE paper" in Central Banking, Jan 2023
"'Conceptual complexity' has risen in BoE publications, research finds" in Central Banking, Nov 2023
Research Assistance
The language of rules - textual complexity in banking reforms
[Bank of England Staff Working Paper No. 834 | November 2021]